Reliance – Which Way?
Reliance has declared a good results for the Q4 and for the FY 2021-22. However, it appears that they have not been able to meet the forecasts which they had declared for the quarter.
Looking at the technical charts, Reliance had hit all time high two weeks ago at 2856.15 which was a good rally all the way from 2180. This trend lasted for eight long weeks at a stretch. All of this could have been in anticipation of a good results or the quarter. This makes sense when we see the results declared for Q4.
The important question which needs to be answered is what is it going to do now?
Will the bullish trajectory continue or will there be a correction?
Last week it had a sharp downside with a bear sash and a strong bearish candle on weekly timeframe. What is market discounting now in-spite of a good result? Fundamentally, we all understand how strong Reliance is based on their plans in retail sector and now in digital sector. It’s only going to add to its strengths. Having said this, on technicals it’s looking a bit weaker in shorter time frame. We are seeing bearish divergence on RSI and a possibility of bull trap if the market continues its downward journey this week (week starting 9th May 2022). Closing below 20 SMA on daily and now at the cusp of breaking 40 EMA can lead to further downside on this counter.
Further, Reliance is a heavyweight in Nifty and hence its important we check what is it doing vis-à-vis Nifty 50 Index. Reviewing it, the message that I am seeing is a clear inter market divergence. While Reliance was making all time high Nifty at the same time witnessed a drop to 17000 levels.
Coupling the technical view and inter-script divergence leads me to conclude that we could possibly witness some retracement in Reliance in shorter time frame. How much downside? That’s for the time to decide.
Jitendra B Gopalakrishna (Jeethu)
Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and not to be construed as an investment or trading advise. The above information is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only.